The tropical disturbance that caught attention earlier this week in the Caribbean has officially reached the Southern Gulf of Mexico. While there is a low chance for tropical development over the next few days, heavy rain is expected to reach Texas.
The Thursday night update from the National Hurricane Center is similar to those of the past 24 to 36 hours. This tropical wave has a near 0% chance of development over the next 48 hours and a low 10% chance through the weekend. Strong wind shear is expected to keep development from happening through the remainder of the work week. Reason for a low chance by Saturday: that upper level wind weakens a bit.
While there is not a very credible chance for this to take on tropical characteristics, the chance is not completely off the table. That is the reason we keep eyes on it over the next few days.